烏克蘭戰爭。波蘭導彈爆炸事件發生了什麼?

3週前
烏克蘭戰爭。波蘭導彈爆炸事件發生了什麼?

這是因為俄羅斯向烏克蘭境內的目標發射了數十枚導彈,而烏克蘭軍隊試圖用自己的導彈--其防空系統的一部分--擊落這些導彈。

在波蘭當局--以及北約盟國--試圖確定事實的時候,BBC的公開來源調查小組一直在分析報告和研究社交媒體上的圖像,以發現有關這一事件的更多細節。

爆炸是在哪裡發生的?

僅根據這張圖片,BBC至今無法證實是在同一地點發現的,因為照片中缺乏更廣泛的視覺線索。

我們已將其展示給國防專家,並詢問他們是否能找出這是什麼類型的導彈,以及誰可能發射了它。

智囊團CSIS的Mark Cancian認為這可能是來自S-300系統。這種類型的導彈通常用於地對空攻擊,俄羅斯和烏克蘭在整個戰爭期間都在使用。

美國外交關係委員會的安全專家J Andrés Gannon說:"誰發射的導彈還不清楚,"他同意這可能是來自S-300系統。

"我們知道俄羅斯一直在使用S-300系統進行地面攻擊,儘管它是一個防空系統,但烏克蘭也使用它們進行防空,以應對巡航導彈。"

智囊團Rusi的高級研究員Justin Bronk博士同意,這可能是來自S-300系統,但目前還沒有足夠的證據來確定它。

美國總統喬-拜登說,這枚導彈 "不太可能 "是從俄羅斯發射的,美國官員的初步調查結果表明它是由烏克蘭防空系統發射的。

俄羅斯離波蘭的爆炸點最近的地方大約有580公里,遠遠超過我們採訪的專家所說的S-300系統的範圍。

S300是如何使用的?


It came as Russia fired dozens of missiles at targets in Ukraine and Ukrainian forces tried to shoot them down with its own missiles - part of its air defence system.

As the Polish authorities - along with Nato allies - try to establish the facts, the BBC's open source investigations team has been analysing reports and studying images on social media to uncover more details about the incident.

Where was the blast?

Based on this image alone, the BBC has so far been unable to verify that it was found at the same location because of the lack of wider visual clues in the photo.

We have shown it to defence experts and asked them whether they can work out what type of missile this was from, and who might have fired it.

Mark Cancian, from the think tank CSIS, believes it may be from an S-300 system. This type of missile is typically used for surface-to-air attacks, and has been used by both Russia and Ukraine throughout the war.

"Who fired the missile is unclear," says J Andrés Gannon, a security expert at the US Council on Foreign Relations, who agrees that it may be from an S-300 system.

"We know Russia has been using the S-300 for ground attacks, even though it's an air defence system, but Ukraine also uses them for air defence against cruise missiles."

Dr Justin Bronk, a senior fellow at think tank Rusi, agrees that it may be from an S-300 system, but there isn't enough evidence to identify it yet.

US President Joe Biden has said it was "unlikely" that the missile was fired from Russia, with US officials' initial findings indicating it was fired by Ukrainian air defences.

Russia's closest point to the blast site in Poland is about 580km away, far further than the range of the S-300 system that the experts we spoke to say appears to have been used.

How are S300s used?

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