英格蘭銀行稱英國可能已經陷入衰退

1週前
英格蘭銀行稱英國可能已經陷入衰退

貨幣政策委員會說,它預計英國經濟將在7月至9月期間萎縮0.1%,也就是所謂的第三季度。這是在第二季度收縮了0.1%之後。

儘管如此,通脹率目前是英國央行2%目標的近五倍,即使它在10月達到頂峰,預計在開始下降之前,"在接下來的幾個月里 "將保持在10%以上。

金融危機之後,在英國於2016年投票離開歐盟之後,以及在科維德大流行期間,英國央行進行了削減干預,借貸成本一直保持在或接近歷史最低點。

英國央行繼續走其加息之路,但現在真正的問題是利率會升到多高。金融市場預測,利率將接近5%,這比美國和歐元區高。這反映出這裡的通貨膨脹率更高。

今天,央行按兵不動,沒有像美國聯邦儲備委員會昨晚那樣提高0.75個百分點的巨額利率。外匯市場正在關注英國是否也會跟隨美國對通脹的強硬言論。但這是一次接近的投票。

世行表示,由於政府的能源干預措施,通脹率現在將在下個月達到11%的峰值,這讓人感到有些欣慰。但利率仍在上升,因為央行認為更多的通脹來自英國經濟本身,即使能源的衝擊已經被消減了。


The MPC said it expected the UK economy would shrink by 0.1% between July and September, otherwise known as the third quarter. This comes after it contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter.

Nevertheless, inflation is currently nearly five times the Bank of England's 2% target and even if it peaks in October, it is expected to remain above 10% "over the following few months" before starting to fall.

Following the financial crisis, borrowing costs have stayed at, or close to, record lows after the Bank of England intervened with cuts following the UK's vote to leave the European Union in 2016 as well as during the Covid pandemic.

The Bank of England has continued on its path of interest rate raises, but the real question now is how high are rates going to go. Financial markets predict that the rate will go close to 5%, and that is higher than in the US and the Eurozone. This reflects higher inflation here.

Today the Bank held back from a 0.75 percentage point jumbo rate rise, as the US Fed had done last night. Foreign exchange markets were looking to see whether the UK would follow the US tough rhetoric against inflation too. But it was a close vote.

The Bank expressed some relief that inflation would now peak at 11% next month, thanks to the government's energy interventions. But rates are still going up because the Bank sees more inflation arising from the British economy itself, even as the energy shock has been muffled.

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