英鎊下挫,市場對小型預算案作出反應

1週前
英鎊下挫,市場對小型預算案作出反應

根據彭博社的數據,分析師預計英國利率將在2023年8月達到5.2%,人們對英國央行在11月的下一次會議上可能會加息一個百分點的預期不斷上升。

而雖然最初應該能舒緩一些我們已經可能陷入的經濟衰退,但類似的巨額借貸已經讓市場感到不安。

這是幾十年來英國政府債券最糟糕的日子之一,借貸成本出現了1990年代以來最大的單日漲幅。

政府不得不告訴市場,它今年需要額外借貸720億英鎊,但沒有公布背後的數字。對英國債務收取的利率達到了4%,本周早些時候為3.1%,在與瑞希-蘇納克的領導權競爭開始時為1.8%。

財政部對這一切的回答是一張預測表,其中顯示了如果其改革能夠永久提高經濟增長,將會有多少稅收收入。

但是,這個表格雖然是每個總理和每個政治家都追求的願望,但卻沒有說服市場。這是對額外稅收的假設,取代了實際稅收。

首相在她的領導力競選中批評了豆類計算者。今天的計劃只顯示了賬目的一面。對於一個首次亮相的總理來說,通常要關注財政的可信度。這並不是這裡的優先事項。

這個計劃有相當大的風險,但政府已經把廚房裡的水槽扔給了它。它應該有助於前期的增長。但是,1972年最後一次如此規模的預算,導致了臭名昭著的巴伯繁榮和蕭條,這種回聲不會讓人舒服。


According to Bloomberg data, analysts expect UK interest rates to hit 5.2% in August 2023, with expectations rising that there could be a one percentage point interest rate hike at the Bank of England's next meeting in November.

And while it should initially soothe some of the recession we are already likely in, the similarly huge borrowing has sent markets reeling.

It has been one of the worst days for UK Government bonds in decades, with some of biggest one-day hikes in the cost of borrowing since the 1990s.

The government had to tell the markets that it needed to borrow an extra £72bn this year, but did not publish the numbers behind that. Interest rates charged for British debt hit 4%, having been 3.1% earlier this week, and 1.8% at the beginning of the leadership contest with Rishi Sunak.

The Treasury's answer to all this is a table of forecasts which shows how much tax revenue would be raised if its reforms were able to permanently raise growth in the economy.

But that table, while an aspiration that every chancellor and every politician seeks, has not convinced the markets. It is an assumption of extra tax revenue that has replaced actual tax.

The prime minister criticised bean counters in her leadership campaign. Today's plan only shows one side of the ledger. For a chancellor making a debut, it is usual to focus on fiscal credibility. That was not the priority here.

There are considerable risks in this plan, but the government has thrown the kitchen sink at it. It should help growth upfront. But the echoes of the last Budget of this size in 1972, which led to the infamous Barber Boom and Bust, will not be comfortable.

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