拆除金融定時炸彈的維修預算

1週前
拆除金融定時炸彈的維修預算

來自預算責任辦公室(OBR)的獨立預測將最終看到曙光,這是為夸西-夸滕任期內的第一天首次製作的。他們在早期的計劃中一再缺席,現在被新任財政大臣確定為近期混亂的關鍵原因。

但是,OBR對經濟狀況的黯淡預測草案的一個後果是--受到大流行病、烏克蘭戰爭和英國脫歐的某些方面的打擊--經濟發展較慢,受到稅收收入、更高的支出和更高的債務利息支付的打擊。所有這些意味着英國的債務存量在幾年後將會上升。這有悖於本屆政府自我定義的 "負責任 "的財政目標。

政府會辯稱,增長是在穩定的平台上發生的。但是,財政部長和總理也將熱衷於溝通,他們明白這不是2010年。與奧斯本緊縮時期相比,額外的稅收收入將承擔更多的負擔。亨特財政大臣希望能夠聲稱政府支出在本屆議會中與通貨膨脹同步,即使在未來一兩年內顯然不會。


Independent forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will finally see the light of day, having been first produced for the very first day of Kwasi Kwarteng's tenure in office. Their repeated absence from earlier plans is now identified by the new Chancellor as the key reason for the recent chaos.

But a consequence of the OBR's glum draft forecasts for the state of an economy - hit by the pandemic, the Ukraine war, and some aspects of Brexit - is a slower one, hit with tax revenues, higher spending, and higher interest payments on debts. All that means the UK's stock of debt would be on the rise in a few years' time. That goes against this Government's self defined targets for "responsible" finances.

The government will argue that growth occurs from a platform of stability. But the chancellor and PM will also be keen to communicate that they understand that this is not 2010. Extra tax revenue will take more of the burden than was the case for the Osborne austerity years. Chancellor Hunt wants to be in a position to claim that government spending has kept pace with inflation over this Parliament, even as it clearly will not in the next year or two.

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