NI議定書。經濟產出可能增長,但價格可能更高

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NI議定書。經濟產出可能增長,但價格可能更高

該報告是由斯托蒙經濟部去年委託編寫的,但最近才公布。

然而,從英國其他地區進入北愛爾蘭的貨物現在要接受檢查和控制--相當於所謂的 "愛爾蘭海邊界"。

經濟模型表明,與不脫歐相比,議定書的影響將使北愛爾蘭經濟的產出上升2.2%。

這是由於北愛爾蘭的製造商保持了對歐盟和英國市場的優惠准入,同時也因為海上邊界意味着北愛爾蘭的生產商將面臨來自英國的更少競爭。

各個部門的影響有很大差異,部分服務部門因失去進入歐盟單一市場的優惠機會而受到影響,這反映了議定書只涉及貨物貿易的事實。

然而,英國商品貿易壁壘的增加意味着,與不脫歐相比,消費者價格估計將上升4.3%,整體經濟福利減少約2.4%。

"一些行業和這些行業中的公司,以及因此在這些行業中的工人可能會從進口壁壘的增加中受益(GB到NI)。

"其他行業,這些行業中的公司,以及這些公司的工人,將看到負面的影響,因為他們的成本和銷售以及最終的生產受到影響。

他們說。"本報告中的模擬不是預測或預言。它們是模擬,有助於確定可能的變化方向,這些變化的相對數量級,以及驅動這些變化的機制。"


It was commissioned by Stormont's Department for the Economy last year but has only recently been published.

However, goods arriving into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK are now subject to checks and controls - amounting to what is referred to as an "Irish Sea border".

The economic modelling suggests the impact of the protocol will see the output of the NI economy rise by 2.2% compared to no Brexit.

That is due to Northern Ireland manufacturers maintaining preferential access to both the EU and UK markets and also because the sea border means Northern Ireland producers will face less competition from Great Britain.

There is a wide variation in impacts across sectors, with parts of the service sector suffering from loss of preferential access to the EU single market, reflecting the fact that the protocol only covers trade in goods.

However, the increased trade barriers for GB goods means that consumer prices will rise by an estimated 4.3% compared to no Brexit, reducing overall economic welfare by about 2.4%.

"Some industries, and firms within those industries, and consequently workers in those industries may benefit from the increase in import barriers (GB to NI).

"Others sectors, firms within those sectors, and workers in those firms, will see negative effects because of the impact on their costs and sales and ultimately production.

They say: "The simulations in this report are not forecasts or predictions. They are simulations which help to identify the direction of possible changes, the relative orders of magnitude of those changes, and the mechanisms driving those changes."

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