然而,從英國其他地區進入北愛爾蘭的貨物現在要接受檢查和控制--相當於所謂的 "愛爾蘭海邊界"。








It was commissioned by Stormont's Department for the Economy last year but has only recently been published.

However, goods arriving into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK are now subject to checks and controls - amounting to what is referred to as an "Irish Sea border".

The economic modelling suggests the impact of the protocol will see the output of the NI economy rise by 2.2% compared to no Brexit.

That is due to Northern Ireland manufacturers maintaining preferential access to both the EU and UK markets and also because the sea border means Northern Ireland producers will face less competition from Great Britain.

There is a wide variation in impacts across sectors, with parts of the service sector suffering from loss of preferential access to the EU single market, reflecting the fact that the protocol only covers trade in goods.

However, the increased trade barriers for GB goods means that consumer prices will rise by an estimated 4.3% compared to no Brexit, reducing overall economic welfare by about 2.4%.

"Some industries, and firms within those industries, and consequently workers in those industries may benefit from the increase in import barriers (GB to NI).

"Others sectors, firms within those sectors, and workers in those firms, will see negative effects because of the impact on their costs and sales and ultimately production.

They say: "The simulations in this report are not forecasts or predictions. They are simulations which help to identify the direction of possible changes, the relative orders of magnitude of those changes, and the mechanisms driving those changes."