烏克蘭戰爭。必須在一周的高級別會議上做出重大決定

3個月前
烏克蘭戰爭。必須在一周的高級別會議上做出重大決定

但約翰遜先生也是對的。如果西方領導人及其盟友要以任何有意義的方式對抗俄羅斯的侵略及其公平盟友中國,現在是他們必須產生嚴重影響的時候了。

歐盟領導人周末前聚集在布魯塞爾,七國集團峰會正在巴伐利亞山區如火如荼地進行,而其他世界領導人已經抵達馬德里,參加被稱為北約防務聯盟多年來 "最關鍵 "的會議。

在過去,這些年度會議被認為是空談,充滿了含糊不清的承諾,而這些承諾的結果往往太少。例如,想想去年七國集團宣布的 "建設更美好的世界 "倡議。

各國領導人還承諾對莫斯科實施新的制裁,以限制其進口武器工業技術的能力。除了可能對俄羅斯石油出口設置價格上限之外,這也是為了嚴厲打擊克里姆林宮的戰爭資產。但是,只有當足夠多的國家,尤其是世界上最大的經濟體加入進來,這一倡議才會奏效。

西方團結的必要性

喬-拜登和鮑里斯-約翰遜的黨內成員公開質疑他們的領導;法國的埃馬紐埃爾-馬克龍剛剛面臨一場激烈的議會選舉;意大利的馬里奧-德拉吉看到他的聯盟夥伴五星黨從中間分裂;德國的奧拉夫-肖爾茨的社會民主黨在與俄羅斯保持距離的程度和時間上存在分歧。

所有領導人都說他們支持烏克蘭。歐盟周四拋開慣例,為烏克蘭提供了加入歐盟的候選資格--儘管它可能需要幾年時間才能加入歐盟,如果有的話。

但德國、意大利和法國更加猶豫不決。他們還沒有完全放棄這樣的想法,如果不是希望的話,那就是俄羅斯仍然可以成為未來的對話夥伴。無論是在商業方面還是在更廣泛的安全外交方面,當歐洲爭相重新設計其安全架構時,它已經被俄羅斯的入侵和核打擊的威脅所摧毀。

事實上,自俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以來,有一件事在安全方面一直堅定地保持不變。歐洲未能在自己的大陸上站穩腳跟,仍然深深依賴美國。


But Mr Johnson is also right. Now is the time that Western leaders and their allies must make a serious impact if they are to counter Russian aggression and its fair-weather ally China in any meaningful way.

EU leaders gathered in Brussels before the weekend and the G7 summit is in full swing in the Bavarian mountains, while other world leaders are already arriving in Madrid for what's being billed as the "most crucial" meeting of the Nato defence alliance in years.

In the past, these annual meetings have been dismissed as talking shops, filled with vague-sounding promises, that too often result in too little. Think of the Build Back Better World initiative, announced at last year's G7, for example.

Leaders also pledged new sanctions on Moscow to limit its ability to import technologies for its arms industry. This, in addition a possible price cap on Russian oil exports, is designed to hit the Kremlin's war chest hard. But it's an initiative that can only work if enough countries, and the world's biggest economies most of all, are on board.

The need for Western unity

Joe Biden and Boris Johnson have members of their own party openly questioning their leadership; France's Emmanuel Macron just faced a bruising parliamentary election; Italy's Mario Draghi has seen his coalition partner, 5 Star, split down the middle; and Germany's Olaf Scholz's Social Democrat Party is divided over just how far and how long to keep Russia at arm's length.

All leaders say they support Ukraine. The EU threw convention to the wind on Thursday, offering Ukraine candidacy for EU membership - though it may take several years to make it into the bloc, if at all.

But Germany, Italy and France are more hesitant. They haven't quite let go of the idea, if not the hope, that Russia can still be a partner for dialogue further down the line. Whether in terms of business or wider security diplomacy, as Europe scrambles to re-design its security architecture which has been decimated by Russia's invasion and threats of nuclear strikes.

In fact one thing has remained resolutely unchanged in security terms since Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Europe has failed to stand on its own continental feet and still has a deep dependence on the US.

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