2022年世界盃:Opta預測每個國家的獲勝幾率

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2022年世界盃:Opta預測每個國家的獲勝幾率

巴西自2002年以來沒有贏得過世界盃,但2022年卡塔爾世界盃很有可能成為他們的一年。

為了更全面地了解誰將贏得2022年世界盃,預測模型通過使用博彩市場賠率和Stats Perform的球隊排名來估計每場比賽結果的概率--贏、平或輸。

賠率和排名是基於歷史和最近的球隊表現。然後,該模型通過使用比賽結果概率來考慮對手的實力和他們進入決賽的難度,同時考慮到小組的組成和進入淘汰賽階段的種子選手。

  • 無 如何在BBC上關注國際足聯世界盃賽事

巴西以最高的獲勝概率出現。根據該模型,五屆冠軍,也是總體上最受歡迎的球隊,有16%的機會舉起獎盃,而且作為比賽的總體熱門,也是進入決賽概率最高的球隊(25%)。

僅次於五屆冠軍巴西隊,阿根廷隊贏得今年世界盃的概率位居第二。萊昂內爾-斯卡洛尼的球隊是C組的熱門球隊,他們今年有13%的機會奪得獎盃。

在2022年世界盃的前五名競爭者中,法國(12%)、西班牙(9%)和英格蘭(9%)。

儘管是贏得比賽的第三大熱門,但事實上,法國獲得淘汰賽資格的概率最高(91%),在總體熱門的巴西(89%)之前。

2018年被擊敗進入決賽的克羅地亞,看起來不太可能重複這種表現。茲拉科-達利奇的球隊今年只有4%的機會回到決賽,其他11支球隊在比賽中擁有更高的概率。

自1998年世界盃以來,英國將首次由兩支球隊代表參賽,英格蘭和威爾士被分在B組。

根據該模型,英格蘭隊有60%的機會獲得小組第一,並有第五大機會贏得比賽的總成績(9%)。加雷斯-索斯蓋特的球隊被高度看好,至少能進入四分之一決賽。他們進入八強的概率是55%--是世界盃上所有國家中第三高的百分比。

兩支英國球隊進入淘汰賽階段的前景是值得關注的。威爾士與美國的對決看起來是他們從B組出線的關鍵。他們進入16強的可能性為41%,美國的可能性略高,為45%。


Brazil haven't won the World Cup since 2002 but there is a strong chance Qatar 2022 could be their year.

To achieve a more well-rounded picture of who will win the 2022 World Cup, the prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome - win, draw or loss - by using betting market odds and Stats Perform's team rankings.

The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The model then considers opponent strength and the difficulty of their path to the final by using match outcome probabilities, taking into account the composition of the groups and seedings into the knockout stages. • None How to follow the Fifa World Cup on the BBC

Brazil emerge with the highest probability of winning. The five-time winners, who are overall favourites to win, have a 16% chance of lifting the trophy according to the model, and as the overall favourites for the tournament, are also the team with the highest probability of reaching the final (25%).

Just behind five-time winners Brazil, it is Argentina who have the second-highest probability of winning this year's World Cup. Lionel Scaloni's side, who are the favourites in Group C, have a 13% chance of going on to scoop the trophy this year.

Rounding out the top five contenders at the 2022 World Cup are France (12%), Spain (9%) and England (9%).

Despite being the third overall favourites to win the tournament, it is France who in fact have the highest probability of qualifying for the knockout stages of the tournament (91%), before the overall favourites Brazil (89%).

Croatia, who were beaten finalists in 2018, look unlikely to repeat that performance. Zlatko Dalic's side have just a 4% chance of making it back to the final this year, with 11 other teams in the tournament holding a higher probability of doing so.

The United Kingdom will be represented by two teams for the first time since the 1998 World Cup, with England and Wales drawn together in Group B.

According to the model, England have a 60% chance of topping the group and the fifth-best chance of winning the tournament overall (9%). Gareth Southgate's side are highly fancied to at least make the quarter-finals. Their probability of reaching the last eight is 55% - the third-highest percentage chance of any country at the World Cup.

The prospect of both British teams making the knockout stages is one to watch. Wales' showdown with the United States looks to be key to their chances of making it out of Group B. They have been given a 41% chance of progressing to the last 16, with the USA at a slightly higher 45%.

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